I am not the first to question this methodology. I am not opposed to "learning from others in the field" but others in the field need to up their game and not be so attached to their old, outdated metrics.

Recessions are officially declared by the obscure-sounding National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of economists whose Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

Usually, the pundits declare we are in a recession when we have two quarters of negative GDP growth. I think this criteria should be changed to be two quarters of negative "real" GDP growth when banks and investment firms are excluded from the data.

TEK