I like you am heavily in cash and gold. I have been for more than a year. A recession was and is a given. For the benefit of all I hope it is shallow and the interventions of the World Banks and Governments are effective. I don’t agree with everything you wrote but your words of caution harmonize with my feelings. Exactly how much up can there be from here? Where would the liquidity come from to keep pushing the markets higher? Who can and would borrow to buy into this market? My cash is not coming off the sidelines until valuations are cut in half or we stay this these kinds of levels for months after all stimulus is removed.

The Central Banks have created a bubble they don’t dare deflate. They never fully removed the stimulus they put up to recover from the last recession. People with cash are unwilling to invest it, spend it or loan it because, it is too much work to figure out what is a good investment (too much uncertainty and manipulation), don’t want or need to spend it (right now no place too spend it), lend it, you have got to be kidding, nobody who wants a loan is credit worthy.

TEK