I think you did not put enough emphasis on the fact that the Corona Virus is not the real problem but just the trigger. We were in a bubble that was being sustained by low interest rates and other Fed interventions when an undeniable problem hit the world’s economies.

So the much delayed recession was triggered despite the Fed’s best efforts and because of timing and the potential depth of the drop the Fed, Congress and the Administration intervened forcefully. That created a bounce and maybe avoided a total collapse. Maybe they can slowly let the air out of this bubble. If we can keep convincing someone to buy the dips we can find a soft landing.

Some day there will no longer be an excuse for the easy money and some sort of tightening will have to happen even if the tightening is just less easy money that would make money tighter than now.

So if the market was a true leading indicator, it would never drop because the consensus is that long term the market will always keep posting new highs.

Everything in the market is contrived these days there is no natural market, it is being manipulated six ways to Sunday.

All of which goes to a point that predicting the market is only possible for those who understand all the manipulations. I don’t so I am in cash and gold and will be until it is clear that the market is undervalued. I am not sure that will ever happen so I am glad I can retire on just my principal as I can’t risk that principal on an inscrutable investments.

TEK