I wrote that there would be no peace in the Ukraine or at least not in the Donbas.

https://medium.com/@timknowles/ukraine-has-won-the-war-but-there-will-be-no-peace-236abf9bfefb

Even a negotiated peace would be broken with continuing conflicts unless something like the division of the Korea is established. I just can't imagine the Donbas as an unoccupied no-man's land.

The answer to the long-range missile question is yes and no. We say no but let them extend their use slightly and gradually so as not to be obvious liars. Tactically this might be very nice. Juicy targets might stay in range because they think they are off limits and so they might be until they are not.

A great deal of ambiguity is necessary to conduct war and peace.

I suspect that Trump would throw the Ukraine under the bus to achieve his promise of peace. The question is if Trump withdrew U.S. support for Ukraine to pressure them to make concessions would Europe counter with more support for Ukraine to bolster the Ukrainian position and undermine Trump?

TEK