If you only include the expansion in the last 40 years the average is more than 8 years in length, so I don't think we are approaching the average length of an expansion. You cherry picked you time frames on almost every annotation you included. You claim income is down, but it is actually up from pre-COVID levels. Expansions do sort of die of old age, the longer an expansion persists the greater the likelihood of a geopolitical event to end it.

The recession might start this year or not for a number of years. The standard deviation of the duration of an expansion is quite large. They can be anywhere from a year to a decade.

I don't believe that the methodology for determining recession is proper. Among other things, many segments of our economy can be in recession without the whole economy being in recession.

Mining, Manufacturing, Retail and Agriculture are all in a recession right now. If you work in those areas, it might seem to you like we are in a recession. Producers are in a recession.

TEK