Statistical analysis based on historical data is fundamentally flawed. The future is not like the past. Basing flood probabilities on past rainfall data almost guarantees you will be wrong as the flood maps failures prove. Basing your need to protect yourself in case of revolution or social breakdown on hundreds years old events on this continent or more recent events around the world is no more than anecdotal no matter the numbers you use.

The unknowns and the unpredictable overwhelm the available data. The uncertainties dictate that at best you provide a range of probabilities not a single number.

That said. I buy flood insurance, own self-defense firearms, and am prepared in other ways for a lot of different eventualizes. They are unlikely but I believe if there is cheap insurance you should buy it.

TEK