Ukraine has won the war but there will be no peace
Russia will be unable to conquer Ukraine, their aggression has been repulsed and the Russian evil has been exposed. Unlike when Russia invaded in 2014 the world has taken the current invasion seriously. With the failure of Russia to achieve a quick total victory and Ukraine’s in ability to force Russia to capitulate, we are stuck with protracted fighting, no peace.
There has not been peace in Ukraine since before 2014. In someways this is a border dispute. Too many Russians were on the Ukrainian side of the internationally recognized border.
Putin is very very unlikely to accept any likely to be offered peace plan. Any peace plan will not stop the fighting, too many people will not be happy with any peace plan so if not continued war we would have many insurgencies.
I don’t think any of the countries signing security agreements with Ukraine will provide what would be necessary to return the occupied lands to Ukraine governance and even that would not totally stop the fighting.
Even if somehow a protracted ceasefire could be established the grievance will remain, many Russian speaking people in Ukraine will not accept being governed by Kiev. So, even if Putin were to back off or die, the fighting will continue.
I think we need to consider what will lead to suppressing the conflict as much as possible.
One thing that will be hard for either side to accept but that is probably necessary is to take Crimea out to contention. Crimea needs to be independent of both Russia and Ukraine. I don’t know what form that would take but it will be necessary if the fighting is going to stop.
The Donbas will need to be demilitarized. No government soldiers and no militias but maybe peacekeepers.
Both the Donbas and Crimea would probably need an independent peace keeping force but there is not a force big enough that is independent of the warring parties. It feels like Bosnia, Kosovo, Croatia all over again only worse.
This pot when not boiling will continue to simmer.
TEK
