You are not clear about sales. Do mean new vehicle sales or does it include used vehicles? I don't know what portion of the global fleet is replaced each year but I am certain it is a modest fraction. If no more new ICE vehicles were sold after 2025 I think still more than half of all vehicle would still be ICE in 2035. My family has three vehicles only one of which could be replaced with a comparable electric vehicle but that one is fairly new with very low mileage and does not get driven much so I don't expect we would replace it in the next decade. The other two are a smaller motorcycle and a compact pickup truck. Nobody offers a smallish electric motorcycle or an electric compact pickup truck. I don't even see people talking about ever offering such vehicles.

Yes, electric vehicle sales are accelerating but will not continue to accelerate at the current pace for long. Without dis-incentives ICE vehicles will continue to be sold on the used market, maybe at a discount but they will still be burning fossil fuels, with reduced demand for fossil fuels, fossil fuel prices will come down making those used vehicles more attractive.

TEK